Somalia works to free U.N. helicopter passengers seized by al-Shabab militants
NBCJAN 2024
Al-Shabab Claims Deadly Attack on Military Base in Somalia
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The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
This latest incident — a desperate and cowardly attack on UAE forces — shines a light on how important the UAE is in conflict against jihadist terrorism. It is important that such incidents do not deter Abu Dhabi from joining other actors, notably the US, to coordinate operations to tackle the threat of al-Shabab once and for all.
Establishment-critical narrative
Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, and all of the Somali security partners in the so-called Quintet have failed to understand that counterterrorism measures alone won't help defeat al-Shabab. This attack should serve as a warning that merely containing the group is a strategy doomed to fail. Rather than deepening conflict, Somalia needs financial and moral support for stabilization and peacebuilding.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that at least 24K deaths will be caused globally by terrorism in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
