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Associated PressAUG 2024
Brazil: Lula Fires Minister Accused of Sexual Harassment
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Above: Silvio Almeida at Auditório Celso Furtado on Sept. 26, 2022 in São Paulo, Brazil. Image copyright: Alexandre Schneider/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Almeida should have been removed from office as soon as Franco internally reported the case months ago. This would have allowed him to defend himself properly and avoid this bombshell scandal for the Brazilian government. It's hard to understand why it took so long for action to be taken, but now Almeida is finally out.
Narrative B
Given that rumors of sexual misconduct against Almeida had been circulating for a year or so, one can only cast doubt on what lies behind recycled reports that caused his swift dismissal. The Me Too movement has been misused for political or personal gains in the past — that could be the case yet again.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 45% chance that Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be re-elected as Brazil's president in October of 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
