How Brazil Can Prevent an Authoritarian Resurgence
Foreign AffairsJUL 2023
Brazil Seeks Extradition of Alleged Rioters From Argentina
Above: Brazil's Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes speaks during a session in Brasília on June 18, 2024. Image copyright: Evaristo Sa/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
It's no coincidence that fugitive rioters who stormed government buildings in Brasília have sought haven in Javier Milei's Argentina, given that the transnational far-right was behind this failed coup attempt in Brazil. If the rule of law and friendly diplomatic relations are to prevail, Buenos Aires should grant these possible extradition requests.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Jan. 8 storming of government buildings in Brasília was relatively peaceful despite some property damage to furniture and artwork — and protesters never intended to stage a military coup. Mainstream media has promoted a conspiracy that doesn't exist while ignoring that Brazilians are fully capable of protesting and distrusting institutions on their own.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 40% chance that Alexandre de Moraes will cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
