Poll: Brexit Voters Back EU Free Movement for Market Access

Above: UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer shakes hands with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz following a news conference at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, on Aug. 28, 2024. Image copyright: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • A comprehensive survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) of over 9K people across the UK and five of the largest EU countries — Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland — has suggested shifts in public opinion regarding UK-EU relations.

  • The study found that 54% of original Brexit voters would now accept free movement of people in exchange for access to the EU single market.


The Spin

Narrative A

The changing global landscape demands stronger UK-EU cooperation for mutual security and economic benefits. Brexit-era divisions have faded as citizens recognize the need for closer ties in the face of external threats. The surge in post-Brexit migration has shown that leaving the EU hasn't resolved immigration concerns.

Narrative B

The current government's position remains cautious about deeper integration, maintaining red lines against rejoining the single market, customs union, or allowing free movement. Labour's manifesto explicitly rules out these options, suggesting a disconnect between public sentiment and political leadership.


Metaculus Prediction


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