Canada: Trudeau Govt in Minority After NDP Pulls Support

Above: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks on June 6, 2024 in Courseulles-sur-Mer, France. Image copyright: Jordan Pettitt - Pool/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP) leader, Jagmeet Singh, has withdrawn from the "supply and confidence" agreement his party had signed with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals in 2022.

  • The Liberals-NDP agreement — which committed the NDP to support the Liberals on key confidence votes in exchange for Trudeau backing the NDP's key legislative priorities — was scheduled to run until June 2025.


The Spin

Narrative A

The key reason for the NDP to withdraw support from the Liberals now is a fundamental difference in values on corporate greed between the two parties. Additionally, many of the promises the Liberals made to the NDP have yet to be fully realized. A true leader leads people out of adversity, but Trudeau let people down. He doesn't deserve another chance from Canadians. The country is fed up with the Liberals — the tide is turning on Trudeau.

Narrative B

Singh has not just stabbed Trudeau in the back, but his stunt also risks putting all of the successful programs the government has implemented over the last three years and bringing the hard-right Conservatives to power. Following Poilievre's call to abandon his agreement with the Liberals would backfire for the NDP. The agreement's end will help cement Trudeau's position as leader, while Singh will have to part with the power it had while the agreement was in effect.

Narrative C

The Liberals-DNP agreement was a marriage of convenience, and it ended because it was no longer convenient. There's no need to celebrate or fear the fall of the government. Canadians never asked for a parliamentary alliance that resulted in the longest-lived minority government in Canada's history and did little good to its people. Exhausted Canadians yearn for a healthy political environment wherein lawmakers focus on specific issues facing the country, not on looking for a change in leadership all the time.


Metaculus Prediction


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