China Holds Large-Scale Maritime Drill Near Taiwan

Above: The formation of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning carries out training in the high seas in late October 2024.  Image copyright: Pu Haiyang/Contributor/Xinhua via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Taiwan Tuesday alleged that China has deployed 90 naval and coast guard vessels across a vast region, making it Beijing's largest military exercise in decades near Taiwan. It called the drill China's "red line" message to the US.

  • Sparked reportedly by Taiwanese Pres. Lai Ching-te's visits to Pacific island nations and a stopover in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam last week, the drill includes approximately 53 military aircraft and 19 ships.


The Spin

Anti-China narrative

China's aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan signal a perilous dance on the brink of conflict. With warplanes swarming and military exercises intensifying, the island democracy stands vulnerable. The stakes are monumental — not just Taiwan's survival, but the future of global democracy and economic stability.

Pro-China narrative

China is simply asserting its sovereign right to conduct military exercises within the framework of the one-China policy, viewing them as a necessary defense against separatist movements and foreign interference — especially that of the US-led West. Amid escalating tensions, Beijing remains resolute in protecting its territorial integrity, warning that provocations by Taiwan's independence forces will only accelerate its own potential downfall.


Metaculus Prediction


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Establishment split

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