China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan

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The Facts

  • The Eastern Theatre Command of China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched two days of military drills around Taiwan early Thursday morning.

  • The drills are being held in the Taiwan Strait, in the north, south, and east of Taiwan, as well as around some Taiwan-controlled islands such as Kinmen and Matsu.

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The Spin

Pro-China narrative

China's military drills around Taiwan are legitimate and necessary for safeguarding national sovereignty. Beijing is committed to countering Taiwan's "independence" forces and external interference. Taiwan is an inalienable part of China and the US must stop supporting its independence. Any threats to China's sovereignty will be met with resolute counteractions.

english.news.cn

Anti-China narrative

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely fail with US defense support, even if victory comes at a high cost to all involved. While Chinese missiles could destroy US airbases and naval vessels, any invasion force would be repelled before occupying Taiwan. Potential conflict might even destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule due to counterattacks on mainland targets, so China should resist provoking a war it can't win.

Guardian

Metaculus Prediction

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The US-China Conflict
The US-China Conflict
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