China’s economy grows at a 4.6% rate in the last quarter, falls short of the official 5% target
Associated PressOCT 2024
China Q3 GDP Growth Slows to 4.6%
Above: A newly built residential complex in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province. Investment in real estate development across China fell by 10.1% year-on-year in January-September period of 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Photo taken on Oct.17. Image copyright: CFOTO/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
This latest data paints a significantly pessimistic outlook compared to a July survey, which predicted 5.0% growth in 2024. The assumption currently is that China will miss its aim, falling to 4.8% in 2024 and maybe cooling further by 2025. The government is under pressure to implement new stimulus programs, while consumers are hoping for deflationary actions.
Pro-China narrative
Despite a slower third quarter, China's economy still beat estimates and is on track to meet its 5% growth target. Economic growth remains at 4.8% year-over-year, and Beijing has taken adequate measures to boost consumer confidence. China can afford to expand at a slightly slower pace in the third quarter while still meeting its full-year growth objective.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 9% chance China's GDP will overtake the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
