China's Homegrown Airliner Makes International Debut

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The Spin

Pro-China narrative

The C919, a prominent symbol of Beijing's broader "Made in China" strategy, is the PRC's answer to Western-made Airbus and Boeing. It will not only break the dominant planemakers' hold on the international passenger market and make COMAC the third competitor in the global aviation sector but also help advance the PRC's footprint worldwide, reduce its reliance on foreign technology, challenge the US dominance of China's market, and strengthen Beijing's position as an aviation hub.

Anti-China narrative

The fact that the aircraft is only authorized to fly in the PRC and relies on international supply chains makes it far-fetched to suggest that Beijing's "homegrown" C919 could challenge Airbus and Boeing. Moreover, besides cost and production issues, rising tensions between Beijing and Washington could make it difficult for COMAC to get certification from the US and European regulators and penetrate international markets. With the capacity to fly between five and six hours, the C919 is, at best, perfect for regional travel.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 16% chance that there will be a commercial service to travel between London and New York City in under three hours before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO