Germany says damage to 2 underwater telecommunication cables is 'sabotage'
USA TodayNOV 2024
Chinese Ship Suspected of Severing Cables in Baltic Sea
Above: Workers repair undersea fiber-optic cables in 2023. Image copyright: Stephen Sauer/Picture Alliance via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
European officials have narrowed in on a Chinese vessel and, given this was most likely an act of deliberate sabotage, it is being investigated extremely seriously. However, we will need to wait for the outcome of such investigations before anything can be stated with any certainty.
Narrative B
While a Chinese vessel was likely responsible for the severing of these cables, early signs indicate that this was likely an accident rather than a malicious act. Numerous cables have been damaged in the past by ships dragging their anchors across the seabed, and there's no reason to unnecessarily escalate tensions given this context.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 25% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
