Bosnia: Emergency Declared After Floods, Landslides Kill 21

Above: People look at a car running along a flooded street on Oct. 4, 2024 in Kiseljak, about twenty kilometers west of Sarajevo. Image copyright: ELVIS BARUKCIC/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Torrential rain in Bosnia and Herzegovina has caused severe flooding and landslides, resulting in at least 21 deaths in the central and southern regions of the country.

  • Some areas in the municipality of Jablanica, located approximately 43 miles southwest of Sarajevo, have been completely cut off due to the destruction of road and railway links.


The Spin

Narrative A

This is the worst flooding Bosnia has seen since at least 2014, with the scale of destruction comparable to the aftermath of the 1992-1995 war. The situation is disastrous, and the search for missing persons is the top priority. The government has rightly declared a state of natural disaster and is allocating funds for recovery efforts.

Narrative B

While the immediate focus is on rescue operations, the long-term implications of climate change can't be ignored. The recent drought dried out the land, hampering its ability to absorb floodwaters. Human-caused climate change increases rainfall intensity as warm air holds more moisture, leading to more extreme weather events.


Metaculus Prediction


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