Dow Jones Briefly Hits 40K for First Time

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The Facts

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) briefly hit 40K for the first time ever on Thursday before closing the day at 39,869, down 0.1% from the previous day.

  • The other two major indexes – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite – each fell 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The stock market is rallying, and all signs point to the turbulent US economy making a soft landing. While the fight against inflation isn't necessarily over, investors are clearly optimistic about the direction of the economy as market sentiment continues to improve. The stock market is up and inflation is finally cooling, which is all you could want from the economy.

Establishment-critical narrative

The headlines may read that major stock indexes are up, but there are clear signs that the US economy could be heading towards a recession. Huge rises in certain stocks don't change the fact that inflation and interest rates remain quite high with no end in sight. It appears that the stock market is hitting the high end of a very volatile period, but that shouldn't provide much assurance about a supposed "soft landing" for the US economy.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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