El Salvador's Bukele Claims Big Election Victory

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The decline of the democratic multi-party system in El Salvador is a matter of fact now, as the Latin American country is once again under a de facto one-party dictatorship that has co-opted state institutions. While Bukele may have recorded a supermajority due to an improvement in security, this nearly unanimous support may wane if his government fails to address the country's dire economic and social conditions.

Establishment-critical narrative

The result for Bukele is an incredible moment — a record-breaking show of support for a leader within the history of global democracy. After an unprecedented popular mandate, El Salvador continues to stand behind the man who has transformed the country for the better and will no doubt continue to lead the nation forward.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 20% chance that El Salvador will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO