EU, UK, US Make Diplomatic Contact With New Syrian Regime

Above: The UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. Pedersen meets Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani in Damascus, Syria on Dec. 15, 2024. Image copyright: Syrian Transitional Government/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Facts

  • A week after Syria's Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants ousted Pres. Bashar al-Assad, major nations like the US, UK, France, Turkey, and the EU have reportedly initiated diplomatic communications with the new regime.

  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that the US was "in contact with HTS and with other parties" — the first such admission by a US official. On Sunday, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy acknowledged "diplomatic contact" with HTS.


The Spin

Narrative A

In the wake of Assad's fall, Syria stands at a crossroads. The global community must extend a compassionate hand, offering support without dictating terms. This fragile moment demands nuanced international engagement — focused on humanitarian aid, economic recovery, and gentle guidance toward democratic restoration — to help Syria heal.

Narrative B

The international community must approach the new Syrian government with measured skepticism, vigilantly monitoring its actions rather than blindly accepting its promises. Cautious engagement, rooted in a commitment to human rights and regional stability, will be crucial in guiding Syria away from the abyss of renewed conflict.

Cynical narrative

The future of Syria is bleak, and that's exactly what the US wants. Decades of policy aimed at destabilization, as outlined by former General Wesley Clark 17 years ago, have turned Syria into a failed state. Continued interference, through support for conflicting factions and sanctions, suggests even more chaos. For a glimpse at what Syria will soon look like, take a look at Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.


Metaculus Prediction


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