French farmers begin ‘siege’ of Paris by blocking roads around captial with tractors
IndependentFEB 2024
France: 18 Arrested as Farmers Blockade Vegetable Market
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The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
These protesters have genuine grievances that must be tackled, but the growing threat of violence is also a cause for worry. French farmers mean it much more than their peers in other countries when they warn of "direct action," and the size of the protests this time around is ominous. This is despite the government making the right promises, including protections against imports.
Establishment-critical narrative
The government is not meeting the farmers' needs, this protest enjoys widespread grassroots support — 89% according to one estimate — even from outside the farming circle. The farmers' call to save the rural way of life is resonating with a wide section of French society. Even 81% of the ruling party supports this movement, showing popular disdain for the new prime minister and his policies.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 5% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being President of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
