French Parliament to Test New Power Balance for First Time
New York TimesJUL 2024
France: National Rally Blocked From Key Positions in Parliament
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The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Even as they are currently in a political deadlock, left to center-right parties in France have cooperated to defeat the anti-immigrant National Rally in the battle for key positions in the National Assembly — just as they did in the second round of the elections. If there's any certainty in French politics, it's that the far-right won't be in the next government.
Establishment-critical narrative
The distribution of key positions within the National Assembly had traditionally been made to ensure political diversity — at least until the French made the National Rally the largest single party, as undemocratic moves have shut it out of any management roles. If the party can't exercise its representative mandate, France will have become a sham democracy.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 94.8% chance that the the prime minister of France will belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
