Gallego Defeats Lake in Arizona Senate Race

Above: Arizona Democratic US Senate candidate, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), walks offstage with his wife, Sydney, following his address during an Arizona Democratic election night watch party on November 5, 2024, in Phoenix, Arizona. Image copyright: Mario Tama/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) was late Monday declared the winner of the state's US Senate election with around 50% of the vote, beating Republican Kari Lake after more than 95% of the votes had been counted.

  • Gallego's victory means Republicans will be limited to a 53-seat majority in the 100-member chamber.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Gallego won by staying loyal to Democratic values and policies while also making commitments to uphold democracy. He connected with voters from all walks of life — providing Democrats elsewhere with a lesson they can apply moving forward. In contrast, Lake promoted hateful policies and showed her disdain for democracy by never acknowledging she lost her prior election.

Republican narrative

While it's unfortunate that someone with a devotion to horrific liberal policies like Gallego won this election, his victory is just a consolation prize to Democrats who have lost control of the Senate. Luckily, enough Republicans won enough Senate seats so that Gallego's Democratic promises, including expanding abortion access, won't see the light of day.


Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper


Articles on this story