Gallup: 2024 Election Environment Favors Republicans

Above: Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump, departs a campaign rally at the Ed Fry Arena on Sept. 23, 2024, in Indiana, Pennsylvania.  Image copyright: Win McNamee/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • A Gallup report released this week said that nearly all measures of the political environment for the 2024 US presidential election favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.

  • This comes as 1,007 US adults were polled between Sept. 3-15 about 10 indicators that either have moderate to strong links to past presidential elections outcomes or are related to current perceptions of the two parties.


The Spin

Republican narrative

This poll confirms that Americans don't want four more years of the disastrous Biden-Harris agenda and that the presidential election is Trump's to lose. Republicans haven't had such an advantage in decades, and not even the liberal media can ignore that.

Democratic narrative

Even if Gallup figures are correct, that's quite a logical jump to claim that these numbers indicate that the election environment favors Republicans. Several other polls put Harris ahead of Trump, and — perhaps most importantly — the average voter also expects her to win.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story


Go Deeper


Political split

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RIGHT