What Russia and Ukraine Want from a Second Trump Presidency
New YorkerNOV 2024
Germany's Scholz Holds First Call With Putin in Nearly Two Years
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Above: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (R) is seen in his office at the Federal Chancellery during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Nov. 15, 2024. Image copyright: Steffen Kugler/German Government Press Office via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Putin has no interest in ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he simply wants to end his global isolation. This call opened up Pandora's box and gave Putin exactly what he wanted.
Pro-establishment narrative
With Germany facing a snap election and Scholz's party facing criticism over its handling of the Russia-Ukraine war, this call was likely intended to placate a domestic audience rather than come to an actual agreement with Putin.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
