Iceland volcano: Aerial footage shows lava burning houses
BBC NewsJAN 2024
Iceland: State of Emergency Declared After Volcanic Eruption
Image copyright: Micah Garen/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
These latest eruptions are fully in line with the science and the related modeling, which thankfully foresaw these events coming. We expect to see a series of small, relatively short-lived eruptions down the line, and these incidents could go on for decades if not centuries.
Narrative B
While Iceland is well versed in dealing with volcanic eruptions, many are still in shock that this geologic system appears to have come to life again. The people of Grindavik are slowly coming to terms with the prospect that they may never be able to live in their homes again.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance Iceland will be part of the EU in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
