ICJ Orders Israel to Halt Rafah Operations

Above: Gilad Noam (L), Israelian Deputy Attorney-General for International Affairs and lawyer Malcolm Shaw before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivers an order on South Africa's genocide case against Israel on January 26, 2024 in The Hague. Image copyright: Michel Porro/Contributor/Getty Images Europe via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The International Criminal Court on Friday ordered that Israel halt its offensive into Rafah and that more aid should enter the strip. ICJ Pres. Nawaf Salam said that provisional measures ordered by the court in March did not fully address the situation in Gaza.

  • Salam's statement said that "Israel must immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in the Rafah Governorate, which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part." Israel carried out airstrikes after the ruling.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

It's simply undeniable that the war in Gaza has taken a terrible toll on its population, and the US is committed to alleviating that suffering. Nonetheless, baseless accusations are unhelpful. The only way to assist the Palestinians in Gaza is to find a cease-fire and resolution to this conflict through negotiations.

Pro-Israel narrative

The fact that South Africa's vendetta against Israel is legitimized through international legal proceedings is an absurd mockery of justice and reason. Indeed, all this case does functionally is strengthen Hamas' military position in Gaza, as Israel is forced to fight with its hands tied behind its back. Nonetheless, the ruling leaves room for some conditionality that Israel may continue the offensive as long as civilians are protected.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel has committed regular massacres in Gaza in addition to the famine it has created and must face accountability for its crimes. Though these measures still do not go far enough, given Israel's behavior, the ruling clearly means that Israel must end the offensive and withdraw from the strip.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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