The U.S. has suspended some aid to Gabon after the military takeover
NPR Online NewsJUL 2023
ICJ Starts Hearings on Gabon-Equatorial Guinea Border Dispute
Above: The delegation from Equatorial Guinea attend the start of hearings between Gabon and Equatorial Guinea on the sovereignty over mineral-rich island chain, at the ICJ in The Hague, September 30, 2024 Image copyright: Koen van Weel/ANP/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Equatorial Guinea and Gabon have sought a peaceful solution to their border disputes for decades, and that long wait is close to an end now that the World Court has kicked off hearing oral arguments. More than anything, these developments have taught other African nations the importance of using political solutions to tackle problems.
Narrative B
While it's great that Equatorial Guinea and Gabon remain committed to a peaceful solution to their territorial claims, one cannot understate the fact that this case stems from disputes between their long-running autocratic regimes. These two countries are no example to follow, and the international community should be careful not to promote that notion.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that Pres. Teodoro Obiang will leave office in Equatorial Guinea by February 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
