Iran Is Not Ready for War With Israel
AtlanticSEP 2024
Iran Plans to Triple Military Budget
Above: Iranian Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian. Image copyright: Majid Saeedi/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Iran narrative
Israel has expanded its war of aggression in the Middle East to include Iranian territory, so it's pressing that Tehran increases its military budget to address the country's defense needs. Iran has no interest in war but will never give up its legitimate right to self-defense.
Anti-Iran narrative
This announcement, if confirmed, is extremely concerning, as an increase in the Iranian military expenditure is likely to prompt an arms race in the Middle East — or at least between Iran and Israel, as Tehran has sought reconciliation with other regional powers.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 56% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
