Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Resigns Over Oct. 7

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The Facts

  • The head of Israel's military intelligence, Major General Aharon Haliva, announced on Monday that he would resign, after taking responsibility for his organization's failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas.

  • In his resignation letter, Haliva said, "The intelligence directorate under my command did not live up to the task we were entrusted with. I carry that black day with me ever since, day after day, night after night. I will carry the horrible pain of the war with me forever."


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Following Oct. 7, Haliva and other senior military and security leaders were widely expected to resign. Haliva's resignation is a clear suggestion that Netanyahu should follow suit and resign as well. The Israeli military failed to prevent the massacre that occurred on Oct. 7 and has failed to return the 150 Israelis who remain as hostages in Gaza. The failure to prevent this attack and ward off this horrific conflict is too grievous an error to overcome.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel remains engaged in fighting on multiple fronts, with a full-out war occurring in Gaza, and fighting with Hezbollah ongoing in the north. Additionally, tensions with Iran remain high after attacks between the two countries. At this point in time, resignations from high-level leaders, while the country is so vulnerable, could signal weakness. Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders must neutralize external threats before trying to appease domestic political issues.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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