Japan and Philippines to sign defense pact letting Tokyo’s forces train in Southeast Asian country
Associated PressJUL 2024
Japan, Philippines Sign Defense Deal
Above: Japan Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko (2L) and Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro Jr. (2R) sign the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) at the Malacanang Palace on July 8, 2024 in Manila, Philippines. Image copyright: Lisa Marie David/Pool/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Anti-China narrative
Strengthening ties between Tokyo and Manila must be welcomed in light of China's growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. Their latest pact emphasizes defense cooperation and strategic unity, and their alliance aims to counterbalance China's influence and demonstrate that the US and its allies will not remain passive if conflict arises. This proactive stance is crucial for regional stability and security.
Pro-China narrative
Tokyo and Manila getting closer under US mentoring may threaten East Asia's peace. Monday's pact enhancing military cooperation is essentially an "anti-China" move. And with the US silently looming large, Japan and the Philippines are infringing on the PRC's sovereignty. Their focus on defense collaboration and maritime security intensifies the potential for conflict rather than fostering peace in the region.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 49% chance that Japan will respond with military forces if China invades Taiwan before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
