Japan: Ruling Party Loses Majority After Snap Election

Above: Shigeru Ishiba at the LDP's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Oct. 27, 2024. Image copyright: Toru Hanai/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • In a weekend snap election, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the country's lower house of parliament, with no party reaching the required 233 seats. A vote on a new premiership will take place on Nov. 11.

  • According to state broadcaster NHK, LDP finished with 191 seats in the 465-seat chamber, followed by 148 seats for the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), 38 for the Japan Restoration Party, 28 for the National Democratic Party, and 24 for Komeito.


The Spin

Right narrative

Despite a monumental blow to Ishiba and his coalition, the LDP remains Japan's largest party, and its continued governance of the country remains a plausible outcome of this election. Ishiba's ascension as LDP leader was intended as a break from the status quo political corruption that had marred Japan for so long — divided opposition may buy the prime minister time to shore up his position and turn the corner that the country so clearly desires.

Left narrative

Though Japan's opposition parties were unable to come to an official agreement prior to the election to finally remove a weakened and scandal-riddled LDP from power, momentum remains with the country's advocates for change following a hugely successful night for the CDPJ. Now, the real discussions must begin, as rival interests and ideologies must be placed to one side to ensure a new era for Japanese politics.


Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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