Libertarian Party Selects Oliver; Rejects Trump, RFK Jr.

Above: Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses the Libertarian Party National Convention at the Washington Hilton on May 25, 2024 in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Chip Somodevilla/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • On Sunday, the US Libertarian Party chose Chase Oliver as their candidate for the November presidential election. The Libertarian National Convention chose Oliver over former Pres. Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who both spoke at the convention.

  • After seven hours of voting, the convention chose Oliver, 38. In his acceptance speech, he described himself as "armed and gay." He also urged an end to Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza, saying, "end the genocide."


The Spin

Libertarian narrative

The Libertarian Party rejected both Trump and Kennedy as they sought a more youthful candidate for the 2024 presidential election in Chase Oliver. At age 38, this is Oliver's first attempt at becoming President of the United States. His ambition is not to win the election but to build a nationwide campaign and educate young voters about libertarian values.

Pro-Trump narrative

Former Pres. Trump believes that, despite the outcome of the Libertarian nomination process, most Libertarian voters will choose him come election day. RFK Jr.'s radical left platform clearly does not fit the bill, and, of course, voters will resoundingly reject another four years of Joe Biden. As the former president eloquently explained during the Libertarian convention, Trump is the only choice to save America's sinking ship.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's stumping at the Libertarian Party convention was an epic fail. In stark contrast to a MAGA rally, Trump was surprised to find himself in hostile territory and did not swoon libertarians like he'd hoped. Come November, it's very possible that a small but solid Libertarian Party led by Oliver could keep votes away from Trump.

Narrative D

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is still an incredible wildcard for the November election, even though he didn't win the Libertarian nomination. Polling shows it's still unclear if he causes more damage to Biden or Trump, but his vote totals could be enough to tip the scales in some swing states. Kennedy could be a difference maker in a state like Arizona — the GOP and Democratic Party alike need to pay very close attention.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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