The new malaria vaccine will prevent many deaths – but it’s by no means the end of the disease
GuardianJUL 2023
Malaria Vaccine Debuts in Africa
Above: Anopheles gambiae. Malaria vector, parasite. Image copyright: Smith Collection/Gado/Contributor/Archive Photos via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
R21/Matrix-M promises to significantly advance efforts to eradicate malaria. Meeting the WHO’s 75% efficacy target, the vaccine is a ground-breaking achievement. At under $4 per dose, it's extremely affordable. The vaccine targets malaria pathogens early and induces a strong immune response — potentially cutting annual deaths from 500K to 200K this decade and eliminating the disease by the next.
Narrative B
R21/Matrix-M is not a cure-all. It offers up to 75% protection in trials, but real-world effectiveness may be lower, especially in impoverished regions. While it may be vital, this vaccine alone won't end malaria. Challenges include the need for multiple doses, potential difficulties in maintaining vaccination schedules, and reliance on other measures like bed nets and effective treatments. Battling malaria requires a consistent, multi-front offensive.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 42% chance the global malaria mortality rates will be reduced by 90%, when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
