Malibu Wildfire Forces Mass Evacuations

Above: A firefighter pulls a water hose as the Franklin Fire burns palm trees on Dec. 10, 2024, in Malibu, California. Image copyright: Mario Tama/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • A fast-moving wildfire in California, dubbed the Franklin Fire, erupted near Malibu Canyon Road near Pepperdine University late Monday night, rapidly expanding to 2.2K acres by Tuesday morning with zero containment.

  • The blaze forced approximately 18K residents to evacuate, with mandatory orders affecting 2K homes and warning notices issued to 6K additional properties across the Malibu region.


The Spin

Narrative A

This is the fault of climate change. Carbon emissions are leading to hotter and drier climates, leading to larger fires that release more carbon into the atmosphere. Not only are millions of acres of coastal land burning, but toxic smoke is being emitted. Americans don't even have to read climate literature to see and smell the effects of climate change.

Narrative B

Climate change's role in wildfires is exaggerated, often at the expense of other crucial factors — including human-caused ignitions and poor forest management. Leading academic journals — like Nature and Science — favor politicized discourse over truth, leading to false narratives about climate impacts and hindering the development of practical solutions.


Metaculus Prediction


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