Morning Consult Poll: Harris Leads Trump 51%-45%

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The Facts

  • US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads her Republican counterpart, former Pres. Donald Trump, 51%-45% in the latest Morning Consult survey of likely voters, which was released Tuesday.

  • Harris' six-point lead and her popularity among likely voters are her best showings since she entered the race, replacing Pres. Joe Biden in July. Her lead has increased three points since she debated Trump on Sept. 10.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Most Americans disagree with Trump when he says he won the debate, and now we know most disagree with the idea of voting for him in November. This poll follows the trend of others showing that Harris has the lead or is neck-in-neck. Harris' momentum is real.

Republican narrative

There's no post-debate momentum. The data shows few people were moved by the debate regardless of who would-be voters believed won. Polling shows razor-thin margins in the seven battleground states that will determine the winner, and that's what matters.


Metaculus Prediction


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