North Korea Fires Missiles After Kim Pledges to Boost Nuclear Arsenal

Above: People watch a television broadcast reporting on North Korean Kim Jong-un at the Seoul Railway Station on January 05, 2022 in Seoul, South Korea. Image copyright: Chung Sung-Jun/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • According to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff and Japan's Defense Ministry, North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward its eastern waters at around 7:10 a.m. on Thursday.

  • This comes as the North's leader, Kim Jong Un, said in a speech marking the 76th founding anniversary of the country on Monday, that the number of nuclear weapons will be exponentially increased.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Though Kim may seem like an irrational actor, he's simply using the only leverage he has in dealing with South Korea and the US. His nuclear ambitions are designed to seek political gains and sanctions relief after successive American administrations have derailed diplomatic routes to denuclearization.

Pro-establishment narrative

As much as North Korea wishes to flex its military potential and engage in bombastic rhetoric, it would be best for Pyongyang not to push this too far. The North is well known to suffer extreme economic hardship, and it's near-impossible for them to keep masking vulnerabilities with dangerous propaganda and military activity.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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