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USA TodayNOV 2024
North Korea: Kim Jong Un Orders 'Mass Production' of Kamikaze Drones
Above: A 24-hour Yonhap News TV broadcast at Yongsan Railway Station in Seoul shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a training base of the Korean People's Army's special operations forces in western Pyongyang on Oct. 4, 2024. Image copyright: Kim Jae-Hwan/Contributor/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
North Korea’s accelerated drone program and deepening ties with Russia underscore a growing military threat to the West. Kim Jong Un's weapons are now modeled on advanced foreign designs and bolstered by Russian technology, enhancing its potential offensive capabilities. As North Korean troops gain combat experience in Ukraine, especially regarding the use of drones, the West must prepare to counter threats to both Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
Establishment-critical narrative
It makes sense that North Korea, which has long faced provocation from the US and South Korea, would seek to even the playing field with respect to military technology. The US has conducted illegal drone strikes on civilians for over a decade, and now it's developing lethal autonomous drones in preparation for war in the Pacific. Neither Pyongyang nor Moscow actually want a wider war, but they have a right to arm themselves in the face of continued Western aggression.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 0.5%, 6%, and 12% chance that North and South Korea will be at war before 2025, 2030, and 2040, respectively, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
