Philippines, China Exchange Blame for Collision in South China Sea

Above: A plane sits on an airfield next to buildings and structures on the artificial island built by China in Fiery Cross Reef on October 25, 2022 in Spratly Islands, South China Sea. Image copyright: Ezra Acayan/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • China and the Philippines have blamed each other after their coast guard vessels collided in the South China Sea early on Monday near the Sabina Shoal, the first time in decades they have clashed over the disputed atoll in the Spratly Islands.

  • According to Beijing, Philippine coast guard ships MRRV-4410 and MMRV-4411 illegally intruded into its waters despite repeated warnings. The first vehicle also collided with the Chinese Coast Guard Vessel 21551, allegedly intentionally.


The Spin

Anti-China narrative

China must stop engaging in illegal and reckless behavior in the West Philippine Sea, which is within the Philippine exclusive economic zone, as Beijing has no legal claims in these waters. Chinese ships have clearly violated international norms in this latest incident, so the Philippines is preparing a diplomatic protest and a legal action against China.

Pro-China narrative

China took legitimate, professional, and restrained restrictive measures against Philippine coast guard ships that violated Chinese territorial sovereignty. With the help of foreign countries, the Philippines appears to be exploiting China's tolerance and goodwill, to escalate the South China Sea conflict. If Manila keeps underestimating China's ability to protect its territory and maritime rights, Beijing will fight back with powerful countermeasures.


Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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