Philippines Ratifies Defense Pact With Japan

Above: The Philippines and Japan sign a key defense pact on July 8, 2024. Image copyright: Ted Aljibe/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The RAA strengthens regional security cooperation and promotes stability in the Indo-Pacific region by enhancing military interoperability and disaster response capabilities between trusted partners, while upholding international law and rules-based order.

Establishment-critical narrative

The agreement represents a concerning military expansion that could escalate regional tensions and trigger an arms race in Southeast Asia, while disregarding historical sensitivities regarding Japan's World War II presence in the Philippines.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 20% chance armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO