What is the EU-Mercosur trade agreement and why does it matter?
IndependentNOV 2024
Poland Joins France in Opposing EU-Mercosur Trade Deal
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Above: French Pres. Emmanuel Macron welcomes Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk with an official ceremony at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France on Feb. 12, 2024. Image copyright: Umit Donmez/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The EU-Mercosur trade deal is an economic opportunity for Europe, providing access to South America’s critical raw materials essential for the green transition and reducing dependence on China. It lowers tariffs, opens investment opportunities, and supports European industries like chemicals and machinery. While farmers are concerned about competition from South American imports, the deal’s economic and strategic benefits, including strengthened supply chains and geopolitical influence, outweigh these challenges and offer a path to balance their needs through targeted support.
Establishment-critical narrative
The EU-Mercosur trade deal prioritizes corporate profits over people, democracy, and the environment. Negotiated by bureaucrats for over two decades, it lacks transparency and excludes public input. The deal threatens to worsen deforestation, promote harmful agricultural practices, and undermine European farmers through cheap imports of beef, chicken, and sugar. Furthermore, it exacerbates social inequalities and weakens vital environmental and human rights protections. By pushing this deal, the EU risks ignoring critical concerns in favor of corporate gains, representing both an economic and moral failure.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 5% chance that any country besides the UK will trigger article 50 to leave the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community
