Poll: Harris Leading by 1 Point Over Trump

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The Facts

  • In a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released Tuesday of voters in seven swing states, US Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead, 48-47% — besting the two-point deficit that Pres. Joe Biden had last month before he dropped out of the race against former Pres. Donald Trump.

  • Although the gap in all seven states is within the poll's statistical margin of error, Harris, who has been the likely Democratic nominee for a little more than a week, leads in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump leads in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The candidates are tied in Georgia.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

The Vice President is an extremely electric person and a dynamic leader, so it's no surprise her popularity is on the rise. She has the type of ideas that will move the US forward. An excited Democratic voter base is uniting around Harris at the same time Republicans and the Trump campaign are trying to distance themselves from Project 2025, which is the basis for most of their platform.

Republican narrative

Harris should enjoy her honeymoon with voters while it lasts. Soon enough the electorate will come to terms with how closely aligned Harris is with Biden's failed policies and how dangerously liberal her record was prior to becoming the vice president. The fundamentals of this election haven't changed much since the Democrats' change in candidate, and Trump is still in pole position.


Metaculus Prediction


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