Russian election officials register Putin to run in March election he’s all but certain to win
NBCJAN 2024
Putin Challenger Submits Bid to Run for Russian President
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The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite his overwhelming outpouring of support, it would be surprising if Nadezhdin isn't barred from running for president, given Putin's history of persecuting political rivals and shutting down any genuine political opposition. Democracy in Russia is performative, as no candidates actually capable of beating Putin are allowed to run — something that must change if Moscow wants to align with the rules-based international order.
Pro-establishment narrative
None of the other candidates campaigning against Putin stand any chance due to the president's current popularity. All of Russia is united in favor of this longstanding successful leader. At times of turmoil, like Russia being at war with Ukraine, it's especially important that the Russian people come together and vote for stability in the face of a threatening, hegemonic West.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by October 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
