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NBCSEP 2024
Putin Orders Russian Military to Boost Numbers by 180K
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Above: Russian servicemen march during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow on May 9, 2024. Image copyright: Cao Yang/Xinhua News Agency/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin's increase in troop numbers comes after his invasion of Ukraine dragged into its second-and-a-half year without the result he had hoped to achieve. It also comes as Ukraine's Kursk offensive exposed Russian vulnerabilities.
Pro-Russia narrative
The size of Russia's military has expanded in response to the growing size of hostile actions and threats made against Russia by the West. Not only is Russia facing Western-backed hostilities on its western borders, but there's growing instability in Russia's east.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 20% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
