Putin Orders Russian Military to Boost Numbers by 180K

Above: Russian servicemen march during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow on May 9, 2024. Image copyright: Cao Yang/Xinhua News Agency/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Putin's increase in troop numbers comes after his invasion of Ukraine dragged into its second-and-a-half year without the result he had hoped to achieve. It also comes as Ukraine's Kursk offensive exposed Russian vulnerabilities.

Pro-Russia narrative

The size of Russia's military has expanded in response to the growing size of hostile actions and threats made against Russia by the West. Not only is Russia facing Western-backed hostilities on its western borders, but there's growing instability in Russia's east.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 20% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO