Report: Israel to Scale Back Rafah Offensive

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The Facts

  • A Washington Post columnist claimed on Monday that Israel would scale back its operations in Rafah in line with US expectations, saying that behind-the-scene talks point to a more constrained campaign with plans to send two divisions into the city put on hold.

  • This comes as the main UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) reported that as of Saturday, more than 800K people have been displaced from Rafah since Israeli forces launched its offensive on May 6.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

It is simply undeniable that the war in Gaza has taken a terrible toll on its population, and the US is committed to alleviating that suffering. Nonetheless, baseless accusations are unhelpful and may even jeopardize negotiations for a cease-fire. The US has managed to leverage its position to improve the situation, and Israel has worked toward addressing US concerns.

Pro-Israel narrative

In contrast to the cynical predictions made by US politicians, Israel has been quite successful in limiting civilian casualties in Rafah. War is never pretty, and Israel has tried its best to reduce the suffering of Palestinian civilians. However, now it seems that, due to all the delays caused by US misgivings, Hamas elements in Rafah may have already disappeared among the civilian population.

Pro-Palestine narrative

After over seven months of non-stop brutality, the situation in Gaza continues to worsen. The US has simply failed to reel Netanyahu in, and over 35K Palestinians are dead because of it. Indeed, Israeli attempts to evacuate Rafah have forced almost 1M people into even worse conditions. Israeli crimes keep stacking up, yet the international community and the US refuse to do anything meaningful to stop the carnage.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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