Report: Previous Negotiations Over Rafah Crossing Failed

Above: Ambulances in front of the Rafah crossing during a visit of General Antonio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, on March 23, 2024 in Rafah, Egypt. Image copyright: Ali Moustafa/Stringer/Getty Images Europe via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Axios reported on Friday that negotiations regarding the Rafah Crossing into Gaza — and who will control it — failed last week. Israel has said that neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority (PA), which partially controls the West Bank, can run the crossing.

  • Israel said Palestinians affiliated with the PA's ruling Fatah party would be eligible, but that they couldn't work as representatives of the PA. Israel also reportedly proposed that vetted Palestinians could form "a local civilian committee," but the idea was rejected by Egypt and the PA.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the Palestinian Authority is by no means perfect, since the end of the Second Intifada in the mid-2000s, the PA has been able to maintain a relative calm in the West Bank that has ultimately worked in Israel's favor. That stability has been threatened, however, by extremists in the Israeli government who want to annex the entire West Bank. Israel's security would be directly threatened by a power vacuum, and it must make sure the PA's collapse is avoided.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though the US may believe that it can force the PA to "reform," the reality is the PA is simply not a partner for peace. Like Hamas, the PA supports the destruction of Israel and lacks democratic legitimacy. The PA would be incapable of demilitarizing Gaza or deradicalizing its population — meaning that the chance that an attack like Oct. 7 could happen again remains. Indeed, Israel may as well let Hamas stay in power if it's truly considering allowing the PA to take over Gaza the day after the war.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The great irony of the debate regarding the PA is that Palestinians, especially in the occupied West Bank, by and large, see the political body as an extension of Israel's occupation. Mahmoud Abbas and his lame-duck administration in Ramallah are deeply unpopular, and Palestinians simply do not want to be governed by the PA. The US must realize that it cannot force Palestinians to support the PA, and it will have to be more creative if it wants to set the conditions advantageous to ending this conflict.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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