Report: Putin Prepared to 'Freeze' War on Current Battlefield Lines

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The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

These phony signals from Putin's entourage should be ignored by the West. Putin simply plans to derail the Ukrainian Peace Summit that will be held in Switzerland on June 15-16. This is the only realistic pathway for peace in Ukraine, and Putin is scared of it being successful.

Pro-Russia narrative

Whatever comes out of the Ukrainian Peace Summit is null and void. How can you try to have a negotiated settlement to the war with only one side of the conflict? If Ukraine is real about bringing the war to an end, it must negotiate with Russia.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 3% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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