The UK is in recession – but for how long?
Spectator (UK)FEB 2024
Report: UK Economy Slips into Technical Recession
Image copyright: Dan Kitwood / Staff via Getty Images
The Spin
Left narrative
Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, and the Conservatives have mismanaged the UK economy, leading it into a recession with little hope in sight. Ordinary Brits are experiencing the pain from the economic collapse, and it's easy to understand why the Labour Party is favored to win the next election. Sunak's priorities are all over the place, and he is banking on a reckless tax cut to save his political future. However, UK citizens know that the Tories' failed policies are responsible for this recession and that the UK needs a change.
Right narrative
There's no denying that the second half of 2023 was painful for the UK economy, but slipping into a technical recession doesn't foreshadow long-lasting doom. All measures indicate the UK is poised for a speedy recovery and that the "recession" is extremely mild with little impact on the broader economic outlook. High interest rates have primarily contributed to slowing growth, and rate cuts could spur a boom. The Conservatives certainly have their work cut out for them, but they are hardly in a disastrous position.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 will be at least 3.56%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
