Report: US Reverses Offensive Arms Sale Ban to Saudi Arabia

Above: US Pres. Joe Biden. Image copyright: Chip Somodevilla/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • On Friday, Reuters reported that US Pres. Joe Biden had decided to lift a ban on exporting offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, scrapping the prohibition instituted earlier in his term.

  • The ban, imposed in 2021 in reaction to civilian casualties from Saudi Arabia's intervention in Yemen, has been lifted as Saudi Arabia hasn't conducted any air strikes in Yemen since a 2022 truce. According to a White House official, the Saudis have "met their end of the deal."


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The US will have no grounds to criticize anyone for human rights abuses as it seeks to reconcile with an authoritarian state. Saudi Arabia has utterly devastated Yemen and has committed more violations of human rights than anyone can count. For the sake of pragmatism, accountability and justice for those who have suffered under Riyadh's autocratic rule will be entirely ignored, and the kingdom will have the weapons to continue unabated.

Pro-establishment narrative

Iran is the biggest threat to peace in the Middle East, and it's in everyone's best interests to support Saudi Arabia as a counterweight. Saudi Arabia has intercepted Houthi missiles with US arms, something they wouldn't have in their possession if the anti-Saudi crowd got their way. Rapprochement with Saudi Arabia makes sound foreign policy sense and will help ease the threat of the region's worst human rights abuser: Iran.


Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO