Why is Ukraine’s army facing a desertion crisis?
Al JazeeraNOV 2024
Report: Zelenskyy's Bid to Join NATO Facing Pushback from Allies
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Above: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses a press conference during his visit at the European Council Summit on Oct. 17, 2024. Image copyright: Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto/Contributor via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US and Germany have been Ukraine's biggest supporters, but it must be understood that its immediate invitation into NATO is simply not possible while the conflict is ongoing. This would lead to a wider NATO-Russia war that could escalate further still.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
If Ukraine becomes a properly confirmed member of NATO, it will show Russian Pres. Putin that he will be lost from a geopolitical point of view. As Ukrainain Pres. Zelenskyy said, Russia must recognize that Europe has borders and independent states, and everyone has the right to choose their own future.
Pro-Russia narrative
Dragging Ukraine into the NATO military alliance is what started this whole conflict in the first place, particularly NATO's cultivation of Ukrainian nationalism that resulted in a violation of rights against the country's Russian-speaking citizens. Without eliminating the root cause of the conflict, it's impossible to achieve a fair settlement.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 1% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
