Republicans Retain House Majority

Above: Speaker of the House Mike Johnson welcomes Pres.-elect Donald Trump onstage at a House Republicans Conference meeting at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill on Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • CNN and NBC have projected that Republicans will win another two House races in the 2024 election, giving them the 218 seats necessary to retain their majority. The GOP will now control the Presidency, the House, and the Senate in the next Congress.

  • While the GOP held onto several competitive seats in toss-up districts, the Democrats lost critical House districts in areas that Democratic Pres. Joe Biden had won in 2020. The latest two GOP wins were in California and Arizona.


The Spin

Republican narrative

After failing Trump the first time they controlled Congress after the 2016 election, Republicans have a second chance to enact the legislation that Trump and his supporters have been asking for. With Trump backing Speaker Johnson in the House and the Senate setting up their leadership, it's time to draft America First laws and have them waiting for the next president in January.

Democratic narrative

Despite GOP control of Congress, Trump will likely face legislative challenges due to several factors. Senate Majority Leader Thune's commitment to maintaining the filibuster grants Democrats veto power, complicating Trump's agenda. Additionally, Speaker Johnson's slim House majority and intra-party divisions mean Trump can only guarantee partial support, limiting his ambitions.


Metaculus Prediction


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