Russia Accuses Ukraine of Downing Military Plane, Killing 65 Ukrainian PoWs

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The Facts

  • Russia's Defense Ministry on Wednesday accused Ukraine of deliberately downing a military transport plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war. If confirmed, it would be the deadliest Ukrainian act inside Russia's internationally recognized borders since the war began.

  • Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said there were no survivors aboard the Ilyushin Il-76 that crashed in a village in his region. He added that there were 65 PoWs, six crew members and three security staff aboard the flight.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite Russia's accusations, exactly who was on the plane and how it went down are yet to be independently confirmed. Various events in this war have prompted a raft of conflicting accusations and, especially amid a sensitive story such as this, it's important that evidence is presented before any conclusions are reached. In the meantime, Ukrainian officials have said they are looking into what happened on their side and will comment in due course.

Pro-Russia narrative

This was an insane act of barbarism on the part of Ukraine. Not only did the nation sabotage sensitive prisoner swap negotiations, they violated their bond and obligations to their own citizens, showing an utter disregard for their lives. Actions such as these seriously call into question whether Russia can ever enter into any security agreements or negotiations with Ukraine.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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