Russia Arrests Fourth Defense Official on Bribery Charges

Above: Russian officers, participants of the military invasion of Ukraine, march during the Victory Day parade at Red Square, May 9, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. Image copyright: Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • In what was the fourth arrest of a high-ranking Russian military official in the space of a month, authorities detained Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, deputy head of the army’s general staff, Russian media reported on Thursday.

  • Shamarin was arrested on suspicion of large-scale bribe-taking and was on Wednesday imprisoned for a period of two months, according to the state-run TASS news agency. It reported the bribe was in excess of 1M rubles ($11K).


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

These arrests likely have little to do with corruption. Instead, Russian Pres. Putin is purging those in his military chain of command who he suspects of insufficient loyalty. A number of those arrested have previously voiced dissatisfaction with how the war in Ukraine is being waged.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian Pres. Putin built his career on fighting corruption. He understands better than most that if this issue creeps into Russia's military, it could derail Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. That's why he's instructed prosecutors to pay this special attention and take the steps necessary to root out the problem.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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