Russia Jails US Journalist Gershkovich for 16 Years for Spying

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Above: The Wall Street Journal's front page from the one year anniversary of the arrest of Evan Gershkovich at the National Press Club on May 3, 2024 in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Gershkovich may have been used as a pawn, but by the US government, not by Russia. He spied on a tank factory on orders from the CIA to obtain secret information about Russia's military capabilities. Western media and advocacy groups can question this conviction all they want, but it doesn't change the fact that he's guilty.

TASS

Anti-Russia narrative

Gershkovich was targeted because he is both an American and a journalist. This conviction and trial were a sham, and he's obviously being used as a pawn in this corrupt case of geopolitical chess. Moscow wants to trade him in future prisoner swaps for their intelligence operatives and assassins held in Western jails.

Guardian

Metaculus Prediction

There's an 11% chance that a post-Putin Russia will substantially democratize within 5 years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO