Russia Launches Summer Offensive, Analysts Say

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    Above: A soldier looks at a fire caused by artillery fire on July 29, 2024 in Donetsk region, Frontline, Ukraine. Image copyright: Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • Following days of increasing pressure on the Ukrainian frontlines, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) — a US military think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the conflict — reported that Russia's military maneuvers since July 29 "are likely the manifestation of Russia's forecasted summer offensive."

    • ISW said Tuesday that Russian forces had conducted five platoon- to battalion-sized mechanized assaults since July 29, and concluded this was probably Russia's offensive as: "Russian forces likely lack the wider operational capacity to mount a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere on the front this summer."

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    The Spin

    Pro-Ukraine narrative

    Due to manpower and materiel constraints, Russia will not have the capacity to launch a new offensive after this attack. While this development is not expected to deliver any real results, Russia will likely have pulsating attacks in order to sell small gains to an audience at home.

    Euromaidan Press

    Pro-Russia narrative

    Ukraine, alongside its Western backers, has demonstrated to Russia that they have no interest in peace. Russia will continue with the objectives of its Special Military Operation, including this latest defensive set of maneuvers, to protect national security interests.

    TASS

    Metaculus Prediction

    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO