Russia opens new front in Ukraine war. Is Ukraine losing the war with Russia?
USA TodayMAY 2024
Russia, Ukraine Exchange Border Strikes After Russian Advance
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Above: A drone view of a damaged apartment building following a Russian air strike on May 14, 2024 near Kharkiv, Ukraine. Image copyright: Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Ukraine narrative
Ukraine is currently on the defensive due to a previous lack of support from Western allies, but that could change thanks to emboldened statements coming out of Europe. Some European officials have even considered sending at least a limited number of troops to defend Kyiv. If NATO as a whole were to agree on this level of solidarity, Russia could be defeated.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia has entered Kharkiv quite easily, which, while not an official victory on the ground, could spell defeat within the Western mind. With just a limited number of troops, Russia has captured 100 square kilometers of Ukraine's second most important city — this leaves Kharkiv severely wounded and vulnerable to stronger attacks in the future.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 45% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
